Beware of experts making predictions.

Now that Christmas Day has come and gone the news people have turned their attention on the New Year. Part of their coverage always includes a review of the events of the year past, and some predictions about the future. A few years ago I had set aside this list of expert predictions thinking that I would one day use it to illustrate something or other in a sermon. I don’t think that I ever did that, but here is the list for your enjoyment.

 

“Inventions have long since reached their limit, and I see no hope for further developments.”—Roman engineer Julius Sextus Frontinus, A.D. 100

“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.” —John Eric Ericksen, surgeon to Queen Victoria, 1873

“Law will be simplified [over the next century]. Lawyers will have diminished, and their fees will have been vastly curtailed.” —journalist Junius Henri Browne, 1893

“It doesn’t matter what he does, he will never amount to anything.” —Albert Einstein’s teacher to Einstein’s father, 1895

“It would appear we have reached the limits of what it is possible to achieve with computer technology.” —computer scientist John von Neumann, 1949

“The Japanese don’t make anything the people in the U.S. would want.” —Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, 1954

“Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.” —Alex Lewyt, president of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company, quoted in the New York Times, June 10, 1955

“Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.” —Arthur Summerfield, U.S. Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959

“By the turn of the century, we will live in a paperless society.” —Roger Smith, chairman of General Motors, 1986

“I predict the internet … will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” —Bob Metcalfe, InfoWorld, 1995

The Futurist, (September/October, 2000), p. 20–25

 

 

 

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